Air traffic trends: key findings
m1nd-set’s 2025 Annual Fore-cast Report for global air traffic in 2025 projects that global passenger numbers will reach 4.22 billion in 2025, an increase of 8.3% on 2024 figures.
The sustained growth in global passenger numbers is a key trend in the report, with m1nd-set reporting that air passenger traffic has consistently grown since 2021, quadrupling over five years.
m1nd-set says that its analysis of international air traffic trends by nationality reveals a shift in dominance from mature markets like the U.S. and Europe to rapidly growing Asian markets. China, India, and South Korea are ascending the global rankings, and by 2025, China is projected to enter the top five markets for international passengers, reflecting Asia Pacific’s expanding influence.
Regional shares in global traffic are also shifting, says m1nd-set. Europe will remain the largest contributor to international traffic, with nearly 2 billion passengers in 2025. However, its share will continue to decline, dropping from nearly 60% in 2021 to 46.9% in 2025 due to rising competition from other regions.
Asia Pacific shows the strongest growth, reports m1nd-set, increasing from 6% in 2021 to 25.5% in 2025, driven by post-pandemic recovery, economic growth, and enhanced connectivity. The region is set to exceed 1 billion passengers in 2025 according to m1nd-set.
North America maintains steady traffic growth, projected at 442 million passengers in 2025, though its global share will slightly decline to 10.5%. The share of Middle East is also declining: it will drop from 8.3% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025, with 310 million passengers forecasted.
Latin America and the Caribbean will surpass 250 million passengers in 2025 but, with Asia Pacific’s air traffic revival, it too will experience a declining global share, falling from 9.4% in 2021 to just over 6% in 2025.
Africa will grow from 54 million passengers in 2021 to 152 million in 2025, but its share of global traffic decreases from 5.2% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2025, according to the m1nd-set forecast.
Airport and nationality analysis
m1nd-set’s 2025 Forecast Report also sees diverse recovery trends for global airport rankings. Key European and Middle Eastern hubs, including London Heathrow and Dubai, maintain dominance for international air traffic, but Asia Pacific airports, such as Singapore Changi and Seoul Incheon, are rapidly climbing the ranks following the post-pandemic resurgence.
European hubs Paris Charles de Gaulle and Amsterdam Schiphol also maintain strong positions, and will rank 5th and 6th respectively in 2025 for international air traffic.
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Shopper behavior insights
Drawing on interviews with over 250,000 global consumers across all world regions, the 2025 forecast report underlines the key trends in consumer behavior among international travelers amidst an evolving travel retail landscape and an increased preference for experiential retail and digital touchpoints.
The dynamic evolution of inter-national air travel and shopper behavior underscores the importance of consistently monitoring market trends and consumer behavior to keep travel retail ahead of the curve, says the Swiss-based research agency.
“To attract travelers and encourage in-store purchases, it is essential to meticulously curate the travel retail environment,” comments m1nd-set owner & CEO Dr. Peter Mohn.
“This involves reimagining every stage of the shopper’s journey with a focus on delivering a best-in-class customer experience. From the airport or cruise ship setting, particularly in areas near the stores, to in-store design, merchandising displays, interactive touchscreens, retail activations, signage, packaging, and staff interactions, every element must be thoughtfully crafted. Every touchpoint of the journey must be designed to captivate, evoke emotion, and provide a truly immersive and memorable experience.”
International air traffic globally over the past four years and into 2025, has shown consistent growth since 2021, reports m1nd-set.
The total number of global air passengers grew from just 1,05 billion in 2021, when international travel was just emerging from the global pandemic to more than double (+143%) in 2022, when total passengers counted more than 2.5 billion.
Double digit growth continued in 2023 and 2024, by 36% and 12% respectively, and projected growth for 2025 is a further 8.3% growth when global passenger numbers are expected to attain 4.22 billion, nearly quadrupling over the past five years.
