The U.S. travel and Travel Retail market continues to reveal a striking paradox: a surge in outbound U.S. travel coupled with a sharp drop in international inbound tourism to the United States.
This observation, which TMI has been reporting about for the past few months, is reconfirmed by the latest research from Travel Retail research agency m1nd-set.
In its comprehensive study exploring the contrasting forces shaping American travel in 2025 and the implications for the global Duty Free and Travel Retail industry, m1nd-set reports that inbound visitor numbers to the U.S. have fallen sharply, with a 12% year-on-year drop recorded in March and a projected 9% decrease for the full year.
This decline is expected to result in a substantial loss of between US$8.5 billion and $12.5 billion in foreign visitor spending. The downturn is driven by a mix of geopolitical tension, restrictive immigration policies and negative sentiment abroad, reports the m1nd-set research.
Additionally, travel advisories and backlash across online travel communities are prompting many potential visitors to choose alternative destinations in Europe and the Americas, according to m1nd-set.
Outbound travel surging
At the same time, outbound international travel from the U.S. is thriving. Americans now account for 10% of all international departures worldwide, making them the leading nationality for outbound travel, according to m1nd-set’s Business 1ntelligence Service (B1S) data. This trend is supported by favorable exchange rates and a growing desire among Americans to explore global destinations amid growing domestic polarization.
The main airports for U.S. international departures are primarily major hubs such as New York JFK, Miami, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Chicago. Americans’ most frequented international airports outside the U.S. include London Heathrow, Cancun, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Mexico City, and Amsterdam.
Travel Retail shopping behavior
The m1nd-set research highlights key challenges and opportunities presented by this paradox. American travelers are less engaged with Duty Free shopping than the global average, with lower store visits and conversion rates.
However, the research reveals that U.S. travelers exhibit significantly better conversion rates when shopping in Duty Free environments outside the United States (68%) versus domestic locations (56%), reports m1nd-set, which exposes a clear opportunity for U.S. travel retailers to enhance store appeal and increase shopper conversion.
On the other hand, U.S. shoppers remain among the world’s top spenders, averaging $150 per transaction, placing them third globally behind shoppers from China and South Korea. This spending potential underscores the need and opportunity to elevate engagement, especially through improved in-store experiences and more proactive retail strategies, according to m1nd-set.
Emotional drivers, such as store design and a desire to browse and discover the in-store experience, influence spontaneous visits and impulse buying. A majority (64%) of Americans who visit Duty Free stores do so spontaneously, largely motivated by store aesthetics, curiosity and the desire to browse to discover the Duty Free shopping experience, or to pass time, while pre-planning also plays a significant role. Nearly three quarters of U.S. travelers plan their Travel Retail shopping: 44% of U.S. travelers say they generally tend to plan to shop at airports, while 30% plan specific purchases, the research reveals.
Interestingly, Americans show stronger interest than global travelers in pre-order and home delivery services. According to the research 73% of U.S. travelers are interested in airport pick-up pre-orders, and 77% would consider home delivery, far surpassing global averages.
Price sensitivity and promotional value are also key to the duty free shopping experience. While 17% of U.S. travelers cite price advantage and another 17% cite promotions as reasons to visit Duty Free stores, price also remains one of the main barriers to purchase. A high proportion of U.S. shoppers compare prices: 63% of buyers and 56% of non-buyers. According to m1nd-set, this indicates that transparent, competitive pricing and clear value communication are essential. Despite this, 22% of travelers perceive Duty Free prices as better than downtown or online, and 21% identify “good value for money” as the top purchase driver.
The research also highlights the decisive role staff play in shaping the Travel Retail experience for U.S. passengers. Interactions are more frequent and more impactful among American shoppers than global travelers, according to m1nd-set, and proactive, knowledgeable sales teams can significantly increase conversions. Poor service or limited product knowledge can act as a major deterrent, however, according to the research.
Owner and CEO at m1nd-set, Dr. Peter Mohn, commented “While American travelers lag behind on engagement metrics like store visits and conversion, they remain a high-value and high-potential segment for the global Duty Free and Travel Retail industry. The key to success in enticing American travelers to enter the store and purchase, lies in reimagining the shopping journey. Industry stakeholders need to blend emotional connection with digital convenience, offering clearer value, and empowering front-line staff to meet heightened expectations.”
Mohn believes that by positioning duty free as a meaningful part of the overall travel experience, not just an afterthought, the industry can turn current underperformance into an opportunity.
