Although one of the last countries to re-open its borders to tourism, Canada’s tourism revenue is set to exceed 2019 levels, generating $109.5 billion by the end of 2023, according to Destination Canada’s latest Tourism Outlook report. This represents the recovery of the tourism sector from the COVID-19 pandemic one year earlier than projected.
Despite tourism coming to a standstill in 2020, the industry, post recovery, is expected to grow faster than the general economy at 5.8%.
While this is positive news, Destination Canada points out the it is important to recognize that recovery both geographically and across sub-sectors has been uneven.
Tourism Spend
Domestic spend is on track to reach 107% of 2019 levels by the end of 2023 reaching $82 billion. Canadians are set to spend more on tourism goods and services – engage in more trips – in 2023 than they did pre-COVID.
Spending from the U.S. and Mexico are each set to exceed 2019 in 2023 at $11.2 billion and $754 million respectively. Arrivals will follow suit in 2024.
Tourism revenues from DC’s three European markets (UK, France, Germany) will reach 98% of their 2019 levels in 2023 and surpass it to reach 105% in 2024 reaching $3.4 billion. The number of visitors from these markets will exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2025.
Australia is on track to exceed 2019 levels of spending and visits in 2024 at $933 million.
Asia, held back by economic and geopolitical tensions, will return to pre-pandemic levels later. Spending by Japanese and South Korean travelers will recover in 2025 reaching $1.1 billion, with visits recovering in 2026.
China will recover one year later, reaching $2.1 billion in spending. Visitation from China will recover in 2027.
Business events travel, which includes corporate meetings and association conferences or incentives, will recover by 2028. However, while business transient trips of domestic origin will recover by 2024, transient trips of international origin will take longer to recover, stretching into 2030.
Visitor Numbers
International visits to Canada were at 22.1 million in 2019 and these levels will be surpassed in 2025 reaching 23.5 million visitors. International tourist visits have grown swiftly, climbing 319% in 2022 and a projected 47% in 2023, year-over-year. Growth in visits is projected to increase by 13% next year despite a weak global economic outlook for 2024.
The United States will remain the largest single source of visitors and tourism spending. By 2030, China will be the largest overseas market for spending and second for visits. While managing economic headwinds, the United Kingdom remains a solid market for Canada across multiple metrics, says the DC report.
